TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF DENGUE CASES at BGHMC FROM YEAR 2011 to JULY 29, 2016

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF DENGUE CASES at BGHMC FROM YEAR 2011 to JULY 29, 2016

Purpose of the report: To describe the Time table and analyzed the series of dengue cases who were admitted and discharge at BGHMC

Scope of the cases: The data adopted in this study are patients who were diagnose to have contracted the dengue virus as primary diagnosis upon discharge from the year 2011 to July 29, 2016.

Table 1. Monthly discharges of dengue cases from Year 2011 to July 29, 2016

Year/Month	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
January	15	8	19	9	29	81
February	11	8	14	3	7	55
March	9	4	9	3	7	32
April	7	6	11	6	3	34
May	8	22	30	6	11	88
June	25	98	180	14	38	215
July	72	141	288	38	113	285
August	180	71	285	36	223
September	90	43	172	34	136
October	25	44	71	18	108
November	19	36	47	26	77
December	12	43	35	42	59
Total	473	524	1161	235	811	790

From the data obtained from the Mortality and Morbidity Spreadsheet shows that the peak cases were during the year 2013 from with 1161 cases, while the year 2016 have a total of 790 cases as of July 29, 2016 which have a high probability to increase on the succeeding months since it was observed in the table that June to November have high number of dengue cases usually during the wet season. The data might suggest that there is a seasonality of dengue cases every 3 years.  

However to describe the series of this dengue case time series analysis should be done to have an Idea about the trend, and the future increase of this dreaded disease as illustrated below.

Figure 1. Time series plot of Dengue Cases From year 2011 to July 29, 2016

Figure 1 shows the time series plot of dengue cases from 2011  to July 29, 2016 wherein we can see a lot of spikes which would suggest a seasonality per month, however some of the spikes or its peak are quite higher than the other months suggesting that unusual increase of dengue discharges. Those unusual graph where seen during the months of 31-34 and 65-67 which are on the months of July to October 2013 and May to July 2016. 

Due to irregular increase and decrease of dengue cases monthly it’s hard to forecast for the next few months. However smoothening and other techniques the Figure below give a rough forecast for the next 6 months.

From table 2 and figure 2 denotes an increase for the next 5 months if the data would have same flow or in normal circumstance. The peak may be seen during the month of October and November and hopefully would decline during the end of the month till the dry season.

Figure 2.Time Series Forecast for the Next Month

Table 2 Rough forecast of dengue cases

Forecast Value
From	To	Month	Year
129	265	August	2016
100	237	September	2016
132	270	October	2016
169	308	November	2016
148	288	December	2016

Conclusion:

Dengue fevercases have a significant increase this year comparing last year.

The viral disease might have yearly seasonal characteristics every three years aside from the monthly seasonality which often increases during the wet season.

The viral disease would continually increase until the end of the month unless there would be an intervention.

Darius T. Muñoz

HIMO (July 29, 2016)

All data needs consent to the author